OGILVIE — 2026 MiLB Projections

OGILVIE · 2026 Season How it works →

Projected 2026 Standings

AL EastW · L · GB · PO%

NYY	91	71	—	96%
BOS	90	72	0.6	94%
BAL	86	76	4.7	78%
TOR	84	78	7.5	57%
TB	76	86	15.2	8%

AL CentralW · L · GB · PO%

DET	84	78	—	83%
KC	76	86	8.4	13%
MIN	74	88	10.3	7%
CLE	72	90	12.0	3%
CWS	71	91	13.3	2%

AL WestW · L · GB · PO%

SEA	85	77	—	69%
HOU	82	80	3.3	42%
OAK	81	81	4.1	37%
TEX	77	85	8.4	12%
LAA	66	96	19.2	0%

NL EastW · L · GB · PO%

NYM	98	64	—	100%
ATL	94	68	4.5	98%
PHI	89	73	9.6	86%
MIA	68	94	29.9	0%
WSH	67	95	31.7	0%

NL CentralW · L · GB · PO%

CHC	87	75	—	74%
MIL	84	78	2.6	55%
PIT	80	82	6.5	23%
CIN	78	84	8.8	11%
STL	74	88	12.7	3%

NL WestW · L · GB · PO%

LAD	104	58	—	100%
ARI	83	79	21.7	40%
SF	77	85	27.5	8%
SD	74	88	29.9	3%
COL	62	100	42.6	0%

Top Trade Value · WAR Trajectory

Full board →

Konnor Griffin$219M

Bobby Witt Jr.$215M

Kevin McGonigle$192M

Rainiel Rodriguez$152M

Drake Baldwin$148M

Alfredo Duno$136M

Elian Peña$133M

Xavier Neyens$132M

Munetaka Murakami$128M

Darell Morel$126M

Top Prospects · WAR Trajectory

Full board →

Leo De Vries5.2 pk

Alfredo Duno5.3 pk

Rainiel Rodriguez5.8 pk

Jesús Made5.4 pk

Max Clark4.2 pk

Josue Briceño4.2 pk

Edward Florentino4.8 pk

Colt Emerson3.7 pk

Caleb Bonemer4.3 pk

Luis Peña4.6 pk

Top Hitters AL→

Aaron JudgeNYY+9.1 WAR2.5 act + 6.6 ros

Bobby Witt Jr.KC+7.8 WAR2.2 act + 5.6 ros

Gunnar HendersonBAL+6.0 WAR1.7 act + 4.3 ros

Cal RaleighSEA+5.8 WAR1.6 act + 4.2 ros

Julio RodríguezSEA+5.5 WAR1.5 act + 4.0 ros

View all →

Top Pitchers AL→

Garrett CrochetBOS+4.5 WAR1.2 act + 3.3 ros

Tarik SkubalDET+4.1 WAR1.1 act + 3.0 ros

Logan GilbertSEA+3.6 WAR1.0 act + 2.6 ros

Dylan CeaseTOR+3.4 WAR0.9 act + 2.5 ros

George KirbySEA+3.3 WAR0.9 act + 2.4 ros

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Top Rookies AL

Grant TaylorCWS+2.7 WAR0.7 act + 2.0 ros

Connelly EarlyBOS+2.5 WAR0.7 act + 1.8 ros

Trey YesavageTOR+2.1 WAR0.6 act + 1.5 ros

Anthony NunezBAL+2.0 WAR0.6 act + 1.4 ros

Jack PerkinsOAK+1.7 WAR0.5 act + 1.2 ros

Top Prospects→

Leo De VriesOAK5.2 peak

Alfredo DunoCIN5.3 peak

Rainiel RodriguezSTL5.8 peak

Jesús MadeMIL5.4 peak

Max ClarkDET4.2 peak

View all →

Top Hitters NL→

Shohei OhtaniLAD+10.6 WAR2.9 act + 7.7 ros

Juan SotoNYM+7.2 WAR2.0 act + 5.2 ros

Elly De La CruzCIN+6.1 WAR1.7 act + 4.4 ros

Ketel MarteARI+5.5 WAR1.5 act + 4.0 ros

Francisco LindorNYM+5.4 WAR1.5 act + 3.9 ros

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Top Pitchers NL→

Paul SkenesPIT+5.5 WAR1.5 act + 4.0 ros

Cristopher SánchezPHI+4.4 WAR1.2 act + 3.2 ros

Logan WebbSF+4.0 WAR1.1 act + 2.9 ros

Zack WheelerPHI+3.9 WAR1.1 act + 2.8 ros

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD+3.9 WAR1.1 act + 2.8 ros

View all →

Top Rookies NL

Bubba ChandlerPIT+2.2 WAR0.6 act + 1.6 ros

Dugan DarnellCOL+1.6 WAR0.4 act + 1.2 ros

Logan HendersonMIL+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros

Sauryn LaoWSH+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros

Jonah TongNYM+1.5 WAR0.4 act + 1.1 ros

Top Trade Value→

Konnor GriffinPIT$219M

Bobby Witt Jr.KC$215M

Kevin McGonigleDET$192M

Rainiel RodriguezSTL$152M

Drake BaldwinATL$148M

View all →

Best at Each PositionAL · NL · Top Prospect (peak projected WAR)

ALAmerican

NLNational

PROSFuture

—

Projected 2026 Stat Leaders

Home Runs

2Aaron Judge52

Stolen Bases

Batting Avg (400+ PA)

1Yordan Alvarez.310

2Luis Arraez.308

3Bobby Witt Jr..301

Strikeouts

1Garrett Crochet206

2Logan Gilbert195

3Paul Skenes195

ERA (130+ IP)

1Paul Skenes2.44

2Yoshinobu Yamamoto3.00

3Cristopher Sánchez3.09

Latest Updates

2026-04-23

Pitcher K% scale fix: whiff→K% model was using hitter coefficients on pitcher-scale data, causing 36%+ K% projections — now calibrated to pitcher whiff avg 25.5%
SIERA ERA blend: pitcher ERA now 45% FIP + 25% SIERA + 30% prior ERA (5,616 FG advanced pitching records)
Pitcher regression tightened: +0.79 WAR over-projection for avg pitchers fixed by increasing regression BF priors
Pitcher aging recalibrated: K% decline reduced 50-80% (was -0.6%/yr at 34, now -0.35%/yr); velocity penalty fixed from compounding to flat per-year
Scouting coverage 7x: auto-grading from Statcast (1,288 hitters + 1,708 pitchers) + MLE stats (2,052 more hitters). Zero manual overrides.
Scouting fielding+arm grades drive FLD runs for prospects; comp matching uses scouting future grades
Pitcher comps: FB velo + pitch profile matching, 3yr IP workload, granular role bucketing (SP/SP-/SW/SU/CL)
Hitter comps: multi-signal grades (BABIP+K%, ISO+HR, SB+3B+SB%), target player row, SIM% fix
Competitive Window: projected standings 2027-2032 based on team control estimation
New data: pitch values (5,616), FG batting advanced (9,610), HR/FB + bat speed, ht/wt for 37,300 players
latest.html build report page with verification links + next steps
Calibration: wRC+ RMSE=14.5 (from 15.7), WAR RMSE=1.15, wRC+ bias=+0.7 — competitive with Steamer/ZiPS
Prospect rankings: split into Top 50 Hitters + Top 50 Pitchers with scouting grades
Statcast percentile bars for hitters (6 metrics) and pitchers (4 metrics)
Pitch arsenal display on pitcher pages with color-coded run values
Player search bar in global header + player-index.json
HR/SB/K%/BB%/SPD + AVG/OBP/SLG slash line in hitter hero card

2026-04-22

Comp table redesigned: scouting grades now in 4 separate columns (HIT/PWR/SPD/EYE), match quality SIM% score added, K%/BB%/ISO profile columns show WHY each comp was selected
Depth chart PA fix: starters now get full projected PA at primary position (GS-weighted split instead of equal proration). Correa 3B / utility player fix.
MLB Pipeline scouting grades added: 30 org pages scraped (~400+ matched players) using MLBAM ID exact matching
Baseball America org lists added: all 30 team top-30 pages parsed for additional prospect grades
Scouting search module (scouting_search.py) added: per-player web search for grades from BA, Prospects Live, Pipeline individual pages
Standings PO%: Monte Carlo playoff probability (6k simulations, σ=5 wins) added to each division table
CS model: stolen base success rate now speed-dependent (fast runner 87%, avg 78%, slow 74%) instead of flat for all speeds
OAA blend: Statcast Outs Above Average (40%) blended with UZR/DRS (60%) for post-2019 fielding projections
Pitcher Statcast: fastball velocity → K%, whiff% → K% blend, barrel% against → HR/BF (6,852 pitcher-year records, 2015-2025)
Pitcher scouting: fb_velo and control grades now contribute independently to K%/BB% projection (alongside stuff/command)
Standings spread: continuous 1.25× spread amplifier replaces step-function; projected stdev now matches actual (~11.7 vs 9.3 before)
Pitcher velocity aging: K% decays 0.35%/yr after age 28 from velo loss (0.5 mph/yr × 0.7% K per mph) for pitchers with Statcast data
2026 Statcast: early-season 2026 data now incorporated (414 hitters, 282 pitchers, 400 sprint speed) for in-season projection updates
Bullpen leverage badges: ★ marks closers/setup men (gmLI ≥ 1.3) on depth chart pages
Injury-adjusted IP: pitchers with 2+ career major IP drops (>60% loss) get 14% IP discount; 1 drop = 7% discount
Scouting fielding: field_cur/field_fut + arm grades now drive fielding runs for prospects without MLB defensive data (30-grade C = -10 runs/162)
Comp scouting grades: multi-signal derivation — HIT uses BABIP+K%, PWR uses ISO+HR/PA, SPD uses SB/PA+3B/PA+SB%, EYE uses BB%+K%
Comp table: SIM% now shows meaningful similarity (was always 0% due to distance scaling bug); BABIP added to profile columns

2026-04-21

Eye/plate discipline grade added: FanGraphs Pitch_Sel mapped to eye_cur/eye_fut, wired into BB% projection blend
HR/PA scouting cap: grade-80 power capped at 0.050 HR/PA (~30 HR/600) to prevent over-aggressive prospect debuts
Pitcher comp distance bug fixed: zip(WEIGHTS, a, b) corrected from zip(WEIGHTS, zip(a,b))
Statcast data incorporated: barrel% → HR/PA blend, xwOBA → Marcel contact blend (40%), sprint_speed → UBR baserunning